Kenya

Impacts of SRM on extreme rainfall and urban floods in East Africa

Project summary

In Kenya, the team led by Dr Franklin J. Opijah aims to find out what SRM could mean for climate extremes and urban floods in East Africa, with a focus on the urban areas of Dar es Salaam, Kampala, Nairobi and Addis Ababa. More specifically, the team will use a combination of climate simulations and observed as well as remotely-sensed data to determine how rainfall extremes would be projected to change under global warming—with and without SRM—and what this would mean for flash floods in urban areas. Indeed, climate extremes impact urban areas the most since they are home to a major portion of the global population, with projections indicating that cities could be home to 60% of the world’s population by 2030. Changes in extreme climate events witnessed globally are already impacting East Africa, and extreme climate events are projected to intensify with climate change which could be catastrophic for vulnerable populations. The project is hosted at the University of Nairobi with members at the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), Kenya’s Water Resources Management Authority, and the UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (Regional Office for Africa).

The team

Dr Franklin Joseph Opijah (PI)

University of Nairobi

Franklin J. Opijah is a dynamical meteorology scientist with distinctive interest in modelling and the prediction of tropical weather and climate on all spatiotemporal scales (NWP, extended NWP/sub-seasonal, seasonal), including ensemble prediction system techniques, weather and climate transforms consequential to local and regional forcing—including surface heterogeneity, land use and cover change, urbanisation, and climate projections arising from global forcing with a focus on Eastern Africa.

Betty Namulunda Barasa

Water Resources Authority, Kenya

Betty Barasa holds a Master of Science in hydrogeology from the University of Strathclyde, a Master’s degree in floods and river basin management from the National graduate institute (GRIPS), Japan, and a BSc. in Earth sciences from Maseno University. She is currently a senior hydrogeologist at the Water Resources Authority. Her professional interests focus on the simulation of flow processes, land use and land cover mapping, and GIS and remote sensing. Her recent activities include work on understanding how groundwater underpins sustainable development goal 6 in Lake Naivasha’s basin in Kenya, the publication of a scientific paper on flash flooding in the Journal of River Basin Management, and mentoring upcoming hydrologists on internship programs. In addition she is a member of the hydrological society of Kenya.

Dr Hussen Seid Endris

IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC)

Hussen is a climate modelling expert at the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC). His area of research includes climate forecasting, climate modelling, regional climate analysis, downscaling, and uncertainty analysis. He is particularly interested in downscaling regional climate forecasts and longer-term projections to national, sub-national and local levels to improve weather and climate products. He is also interested in building the capacity of young regional climate scientists in climate modelling and prediction, downscaling and interpreting climate information, as well as communicating uncertainty. He is specialised in processing and analysing large climate model outputs (S2S forecast, CORDEX and CMIP5/6).

Herbert Omondi Misiani

IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC)

Herbert is a climate scientist with more than five years’ experience in climate research and data analysis. He is currently applying his skills in climate user engagement through web-based applications for manipulating and viewing climate data at ICPAC. Previously he was engaged in research work trying to understand the circulation patterns associated with rainfall extremes using the first convection-permitting model run in climate change timescales for the African continent. His research interests include climate change science, artificial Intelligence, and its applications in climate science.

Jully Odhiambo Ouma

UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (Regional Office for Africa) & University of Nairobi

Jully is a PhD student at the University of Nairobi, Kenya, and holds a master’s degree in meteorology. He currently work with the UNDRR-Africa as a Hydromet consultant to the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) supporting the hydrological modelling, geospatial analysis, and further support to the upcoming IGAD disaster operation center. His research area of interest is climate-related disaster risk management—in particular monitoring and assessing hazards such as drought and floods.