Assessing the risks of water deficit in Central Africa
Host institution The National Institute of Cartography (NIC)
Grant year 2023
Project summary
Over recent decades, water availability has become an increasing challenge for West Africa, threatening domestic hygiene, agriculture, food security, and hydropower, and putting the lives of millions of people at risk. Dr Thierry C. Fotso-Nguemo, based at the National Institute of Cartography (NIC) in Yaounde, Cameroon, leads a team assessing how Solar Radiation Modification (SRM) techniques, including Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (SAI) and Global Solar Dimming (GSD), may influence extreme weather events across Africa, which is highly vulnerable due to low adaptive capacity. The study will analyse daily climate data from GeoMIP ensemble simulations to evaluate changes in extreme precipitation, temperature, and heat stress, using ETCCDI indices and the heat index (HI). It will examine changes in the spatial extent, frequency, and intensity of extremes, as well as project the number of people exposed to these hazards under future climate scenarios. A comparative assessment of SAI and GSD will identify their relative effectiveness and potential risks. By integrating climate projections with population growth data, the study will quantify socio-economic impacts and inform decision-making. The project aims to advance understanding of SRMs potential to mitigate or exacerbate climate extremes in Africa and produce peer-reviewed publications to disseminate findings to the scientific community and policymakers.
