Summary
The study analyses how stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) would affect compound temperature–precipitation extremes across Africa using GeoMIP G4 climate simulations. During and after SAI, dry extremes (warm–dry and cold–dry) increase across much of the continent, while wet extremes (warm–wet and cold–wet) generally decline. These shifts vary seasonally and regionally, potentially intensifying drought risks and reducing water availability. After SAI stops, dry extremes lessen somewhat, moderating – but not eliminating – negative impacts on agriculture, water, energy and health.
Abstract
Three Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) models that simulated the G4 experiment of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) were used to investigate the impact of stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) on combined temperature and precipitation extremes in Africa that can have greater negative impacts on human and the environment than individual rainfall or temperature extremes. The examined compound extremes included the dry (Rwarm׀dry and Rcold׀dry) and wet (Rwarm׀wet and Rcold׀wet) modes assessed during the injection (SAI, 2050–2069) and post-injection (postSAI, 2070–2089) periods compared with the historical period (1986–2005). We found a significant projected change in the occurrence of both wet and dry modes during SAI and postSAI related to the historical period. The magnitude and sign of this change depend on the season and the geographical location. During the SAI and postSAI, the wet (Rwarm׀wet and Rcold׀wet) modes are projected to be significantly lower while the dry modes are noted to increase in a large part of African continent depending on the season and the geographical location and may consequently leads to an increase of the droughts prone areas. The termination effect is noted to reduce the occurrence of dry modes, which may reduce the potential negative effects of the injection after halting. As the effect may vary from one region to another and according to the season, it suggested assessing the key sector impacts of SAI. Thus, this change in dry modes due to SAI could affect all activities which depend on water resources such as water supply, agriculture and food production, energy demand, and production with adverse effects on health, security, and sustainable development, but this needs to be assessed and quantified at regional scales.
