Summary
he study examines how solar radiation management (SRM), using GLENS climate simulations and a SWAT+ hydrological model, would affect floods and water extremes in Malaysia’s Kelantan River Basin. SRM substantially cools temperatures and reduces annual and monsoon‑season rainfall compared with RCP8.5, lowering heavy‑rainfall days, maximum daily rainfall, peak flows and high‑flow extremes. However, SRM also decreases dry‑season rainfall and streamflow, potentially worsening water scarcity. Overall, SRM reduces flood risk but does not resolve drought vulnerability.
Abstract
Solar radiation management (SRM), or solar geoengineering, reduces the earth’s temperature by reflecting more sunlight back to space. However, the impacts of SRM remain unclear, making it difficult to project the benefits as well as consequences should this approach be adopted to combat climate change. To provide novel insight into the SRM impact on hydro-climatic extremes in Southeast Asia, this study conducts a simulation experiment for the Kelantan River Basin (KRB) in Malaysia by incorporating three bias-corrected Stratospheric Aerosol Geoengineering Large Ensemble (GLENS) members into the Soil and Water Assessment Tool Plus (SWAT+) model. The study found that SRM practices could generate substantial cooling effects on regional temperatures, leading to a reduction in projected annual precipitation and monthly precipitation during the flooding season (from November to mid-January) under SRM relative to the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. In addition, SRM could reduce the number of days with heavy precipitation as well as the intensity of maximum daily precipitation as compared to RCP8.5, during the 2045–2064 and 2065–2084 periods, leading to a reduction in high flows. Nevertheless, under SRM impacts, the driest months from February to May would experience comparable decreases in monthly precipitation and streamflow.
