Summary
Using a climate–malaria model, this study examines how the G6sulfur solar geoengineering scenario could affect malaria risk in seven South Asian countries compared with a high‑emissions scenario (SSP585). Results suggest geoengineering would generally reduce malaria transmission, especially in Bangladesh, India and Pakistan, with smaller effects elsewhere. Seasonal peaks are dampened and delayed, and fewer people are exposed overall, but impacts vary by region and raise ethical concerns about uneven benefits and risks.
Abstract
Malaria is a disease that affects people throughout the global South and has a major impact on public health. The distribution of disease is influenced by global warming. Proposed solar geoengineering (SG), through aerosol injection, is a hypothetical climate intervention intended to temporarily counteract global warming by reflecting and absorbing a portion of incoming solar radiation. Using Entomological Inoculation Rate (EIR) as a quantitative measure of malaria transmission under the G6sulfur scenario of SG, this study investigates the projected spatio-temporal characteristics of malaria distribution in seven of South Asia’s most climate vulnerable countries (Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Iran, Nepal and Pakistan). Furthermore, for comparative analysis, future projections of EIR are examined under a Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenario (SSP585) without SG. According to the outcomes of a dynamical malaria model, the spatial distribution patterns of EIR under the SG G6sulfur scenario show a general decline in the distribution of malaria over South Asia between 2020 and 2090 as compared to the SSP585 scenario. Malaria’s regional spatial distribution is expected to significantly reduce over Bangladesh, India and Pakistan. While the decline in EIR is less severe, it is still noticeable in Afghanistan, Iran and Nepal.
