Summary
The study examines how stratospheric aerosol geoengineering (SAG) would affect storm tracks in the Middle East and North Africa using GLENS model simulations. Under high emissions (RCP8.5), storm tracks shift poleward, weakening storms over much of MENA and intensifying them farther north. SAG partially reverses this shift, strengthening storm‑track activity across MENA and restoring it closer to historical patterns. While SAG may ease water and environmental stress in the region, it also introduces new climatic side‑effects, underscoring the need for continued emissions mitigation.
Abstract
As a potential approach to prevent dangerous climate change, stratospheric aerosol geoengineering aims to reflect a small percentage of incoming solar radiation into space to reduce the global mean temperature. However, regional impacts are not clear, especially in the global south. This article provides the first analysis of changes in the storm-tracks from stratospheric aerosol geoengineering in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. The results of our study indicate that the poleward shift of the storm-tracks due to increases in the greenhouse gas concentration could be partially offset, and thus potentially sooth some of the environmental, in particular water, stresses. However, other side effects may occur, motivating for an ambitious mitigation pathway still.
